Obermueller in tune with voters at mid-term 2014

The November mid-term elections are coming fast upon us, especially since absentee voting allows voters to begin casting ballots as early as 46 days before the election or, this year, September 18, 2014.

What issues matter in this election?

To conservatives, there appears to be only one: Obamacare.

This is a shortsighted view because a) Obamacare has become well established in law and economics, and therefore b) the electorate at large will not vote based on this single issue.

The most important issues facing voters, according to a March, 2014 Gallup poll are, in rank order:

• Unemployment
• Dissatisfaction with government
• Economy in general
• Healthcare

No other issue received more than 10%. And, of the four main issues identified, the number of people identifying health care as the most important problem has declined since December from 17% to 11%. Conversely, the percent identifying unemployment as the biggest issue facing this country has gone from 12% to 19%.

Comparing the candidates in Minnesota’s Second Congressional District demonstrates how out of touch conservatives are. For example, in recent times, Republican John Kline has emphasized repeal of Obamacare, funding for charter schools (since he can't get his proposed repeal of No Child Left Behind passed by the Senate), raising the age of eligibility for Social Security as his method of debt reduction and finding solvency for social security. His press releases are telling: most are related to Obamacare; one touts his support for the IRS investigation.  His Twitter feed focuses on charter schools, when he is not spinning the questions at his private telephone town hall conferences.  Most telling, at this writing, is the Senate’s passage of a long term unemployment insurance extension—and a letter sent by seven House Republicans urging the bill to be brought to the House floor. Mr. Kline was not among the seven.

On the other hand, Democrat Mike Obermueller is focusing on middle class issues: raising the minimum wage, extending long term unemployment insurance, equal pay for equal work, finding a path to citizenship for out of status immigrants, using many of the 30 steps recommended by the Congressional Budget Office for ensuring solvency of Social Security, including, among others, increasing the cap on Social Security wages.

Why do conservatives focus on repeal of Obamacare? Do they rely on poll numbers suggesting that a majority find disfavor with the health care law? If so, they need be careful: although a majority might find dissatisfaction with Obamacare, a large portion offer that opinion because Obamacare does not go far enough!  Conservatives are wrong to think that dissatisfaction with Obamacare is based only on those who think the law is bad policy.

As Ethan Demers has written,  “The GOP will not succeed in the upcoming midterm elections if it proves itself to be a single-issue party. Unfortunately, that appears to be exactly what Republican Party leadership is aiming for.” Some Republicans see the problem the same way.

Mr. Kline is not one of them.