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UPDATED: Marriage Amendment Will Pass, Says New Survey

Measure is on the November 2012 ballot.

Update 12:45 p.m. 9-12-12:  shows support for the amendment at 48 percent and opposition against it at 47 percent.

With a new poll suggesting a same-sex marriage ban could pass this November, supporters of a proposed state constitutional amendment doing just that may have walked around with an extra spring in their step on Tuesday.

Current state law already bans same-sex marriage.

According to the KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll, support for the measure sits at about 50 percent, and opposition against the amendment at about 43 percent. The remaining eight percent or so are undecided, the station said. The station also broke down poll results by geography:

The amendment is favored in all regions of the state, with the closest margin in the Twin Cities metro area where the "yes" vote is ahead just 46 percent to 44 percent.  The amendment is also supported by voters in the 18 to 49 age group by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent.  "Likely voters" over the age of 50 support the amendment 51 percent to 44 percent.  

The poll surveyed 551 likely Minnesota voters via both landlines and cell phones, according to Minnesota Public Radio, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. The mix of phone types is important, meaning the poll had a higher likelihood of reaching both older and younger voters. 

The last poll on the marriage issue was a July 19 SurveyUSA poll on the same issue that at least one independent researcher called "flukey," according to MinnPost. That poll pegged opposition to the amendment at just 37 percent and support at 52 percent, after surveying 552 Minnesotans and claiming a 4.3 percent margin of error. 

Still, the eight polls conducted on the marriage amendment since mid-2011 suggest that amendment supporters are making steady inroads on Minnesota voters. 

Poll Date Support Oppose Undecided Number Surveyed Margin of Error Star-Tribune 5/5/11 39% 55% 7% 809 +/- 4.7% KSTP/SurveyUSA 5/24/11 51% 40% 10% 552 Not reported Star-Tribune 11/8/11 48% 43% 9% 807 +/- 4/4% Public Policy Polling 1/21/12 48% 44% 8% 1,236 +/- 2.8% KSTP/SurveyUSA 2/2/12 47% 39% 4% 542 +/- 4.3% Public Policy Polling 6/3/12 43% 49% 8% 937 +/- 3.1% KSTP/SurveyUSA 7/19/12 52% 37% 6% 552 +/- 4.3% KSTP/SurveyUSA 9/11/12 50% 43% 8% 551 +/- 4.3%

The Sept. 11 poll also asked voters about their support for , which would require voters to show a government-issued photo ID at their polling place. That portion of the survey showed the measure could pass handily, with 62 percent in favor, 31 percent opposed, and seven percent undecided.

Have you had your opinion swayed one way or the other on the Voter ID or same-sex marriage issues? What persuaded you to change your mind?

Larry Hilden September 28, 2012 at 12:00 PM
This has to do with religon which is part of our constitusional rights. Its already part of the government.
Kelly September 28, 2012 at 03:58 PM
Nick, you're talking about a matter of degree, not the existence of oppression. Saying that there is no oppression because it is not comparable to North Korea or China is like saying that the country's heartland didn't have a drought this summer compared to the Sahara. Moreover, why would you want to suggest that simply being better than those countries is acceptable. I don't know how you define it, but I see "oppression" as including the withholding of rights. Does it exist for gays in this country? Absolutely. Gays do not have the same rights as heterosexual couples in this country. A friend of mine's son moved to the Philippines for that very reason: He and his partner could not get married here. That shouldn't happen.
Joyce September 28, 2012 at 04:16 PM
Nick wrote: "Would you rather be a gay person in the United States or a straight person in North Korea?" Wow - USA! We're better than North Korea! I thought we were supposed to hold ourselves to a higher standard than that.
Marissa Partridge October 15, 2012 at 08:49 PM
The Catholics need to stop trying to enshrine their religious beliefs into our secular laws. This is exactly what this amendment is about. I'm voting NO to discriminating against homosexuals because no matter what you legislate, you cannot stop homosexuality from existing. It has existed since the dawn of time, it is not going away. End of story. http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentaries/173954851.html?refer=y
John October 17, 2012 at 05:39 PM
Yes AS, allowing homosexual marriage would be progress. just like biking and walking to work/school would be progress....just like you're jesus did. more progressive than driving a polluting car/truck; better for the environment, and our health. And allowing homosexual marriages would be progress for multiple reasons too. Emotional benefits for those who want to get married, financial benefits for the government because we're taxed higher when we're married, and the old joke that the money spent at gay weddings alone would bring us out of our economic slump aren't too far off the mark.

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